30/06/09

EUR/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 1.4170. But we recommend to wait, and entry buy when it reaches around 1.4015.(Current Price: 1.4117)

GBP/USDWe recommend to entry buy when it reaches around 1.6530, because it is more likely to go up to around 1.6650 or higher, and after that, it might have potentially to go down.(Current Price: 1.6615)

AUD/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 0.8150 or higher.(Current Price: 0.8105)

USD/JPYIt is more likely to go up to around 96.50, But we recommend to entry buy when it reaches around 95.60.(Current Price: 95.96)

USD/CHFIt is more likely to go down to around 1.0750, and after that, it might have potentially to go up to around 1.0870.(Current Price: 1.0808)

All That Hype Over Nothing
News headlines flooded the markets last week with a series of events, releasing a closely watched interest rate decision and housing data, among other market movers. The major event of the week was the Fed’s interest rate decision, presenting a no-change status, barely affecting the major currency pairs and the stock indices. The S&P500 closed the week barely unchanged, with a loss of 0.25%, presenting a doji like candlestick.
So what went wrong?
In our previous report we mentioned that the Fed’s interest rate decision could have little impact on the market, due to the Fed’s current options. On the 24th of June, prior to the closing bell of the U.S stock market, the Fed released its decision stating that it intends to keep it interest rates at its current low of 0.25%. As always, the result had an immediate reaction on the intraday session, affecting all the tradable assets, but quickly faded, as a sign of uncertainty continued to linger in the air. On one hand, a combination of improving data and the fact that the Fed intends to lower yields by purchasing $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities and another $300 billion in treasuries relieved traders, helped to prevent a major Dollar selloff. On the other hand, Bernanke’s comments stating that the rate of contraction is now declining weren’t enough to boost confidence and form any major break out.
Despite the lackluster week, which was characterized by consolidation across the board, traders remain optimistic regarding the current economic situation. Carry trades continue to show potential long setups as risk appetite is still increasing, while Dollar counterparts continue to show impressive strength. The Dollar index closed the week, with a minor loss but broke its bullish wedge to the down side. When taking look at the following chart, one can see that the Index has now broken its trading pattern, but is yet to drop below support of 79.958. Please note that the 79.958 support level was taken from the weekly chart and will be closely watched by investors.
Could the Euro lead the rest of the pairs higher?
As mentioned above most of the currency pairs showed a non-directional week, trading within range. The GBP/USD continued to linger around its recent price level of $1.65, while the AUD/USD finished the week a $0.8076. Despite the lackluster movement across the board the EUR/USD stood out, breaking out of its wedge to form a minor bullish trend. Even though the trend was cut short on Friday, as the pair lost its momentum during the intraday session, this week’s economic calendar could allow the Euro to regain relative strength. On one hand the Euro-zone is scheduled to release a wave of data this week, including its inflation data and a closely watched interest rate decision. On the other hand, the U.S NFP result at the end of the week could subdue this week’s momentum, especially as the number of jobs that are expected to have been shredded during the month of June, could reach a whopping 365k. To date analysts are also expecting an unemployment rate of 9.6%.
Which one will be more of a market mover?
While it is hard to determine which of the three events will have more of an impact on the markets, one must remember that current price patterns are pricing in a double digit unemployment rate in the U.S. If this fact is true, will a 0.2% climb in job losses have any major impact on the various currency pairs, apart from intraday volatility? Recent statements by officials and President Barack Obama all mentioned that the U.S economy is still dealing with contraction that could lead to higher unemployment. If those comments didn’t rattle the markets then, will data now?
When taking a look at the following chart one can see that despite the increasing unemployment rate in the U.S, the EUR/USD has presented a change in trend, now trading in line with the increasing unemployment in the U.S.

Conclusion
Even though the Dollar sold off during Friday’s session, upcoming data could present surprising price action. Further Dollar weakness could form break out patterns on all counter parts, especially as a bunch of pairs are now trading around critical levels. In addition the EUR/USD could present high intraday volatility, due to the various market events. Should the EUR/USD follow through and climb to a higher level, it could drag the GBP/USD along with it, despite the negative data from England, especially as the GBP is now trading around major resistance.
Technical Charts
EUR/USD

GBP/USD

USD/JPY

Time and date
Event
Currency
Previous
forecast
Tuesday, Jun 30th, 06:00 AM GMT
Nationwide HPI m/m
GBP
1.2%
-0.4%
Tuesday, Jun 30th, 08:30 AM GMT
Current Account
GBP
-7.6B
-6.5B
Tuesday, Jun 30th, 12:30 PM GMT
GDP m/m
CAD
-0.3%
-0.1%
Tuesday, Jun 30th, 02:00 PM GMT
CB Consumer Confidence
USD
54.9
56
Tuesday, Jun 30th, 11:50 PM GMT
Tankan Manufacturing Index

JPY
-58
-43
Wednesday, July 1st, 01:30 AM GMT
Building Approvals m/m

Retail Sales m/m
AUD
5.1%
0.3%
3.3%
0.5%
Wednesday, July 1st, 08:30 AM GMT
Manufacturing PMI

GBP
45.4
46.3
Wednesday, July 1st, 12:15PM GMT
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
USD
-532K
-410K
Wednesday, July 1st, 02:00 PM GMT
ISM Manufacturing PMI

Pending Home Sales m/m
USD
42.8
6.7%
44.1
1.7%
Thursday, July 2nd, 01:30 AM GMT
Trade Balance
AUD
-0.09B
-0.10B
Thursday, July 2nd, 11:45AM GMT
Minimum Bid Rate
EUR
1.00%
1.00%
Thursday, July 2nd, 12:30 PM GMT
ECB Press Conference
EUR



Thursday, July 2nd, 12:30 PM GMT
Non-Farm Employment Change
Unemployment Rate

Unemployment Claims

Average Hourly Earnings m/m
USD
-345K
9.4%

627K

0.1%



-375K
9.6%
612K
0.2%

Friday, Jun 26th, 08:30 AM GMT
Services PMI
GBP
51.7
51.7

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Prediction for 29.06.09

EUR/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 1.4120, and after that, it might have potentially to go down to around 1.4.(Current Price: 1.4068)

GBP/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 1.66, and after that, it might have potentially to go down to around 1.64.(Current Price: 1.6525)

AUD/USDNo comments for today.

USD/JPYIt is complicated, but we predict that it is more likely to go up to around 95.80. But we predict that we can entry Buy when it reaches around 94.50.(Current Price: 95.20)

USD/CHFIt is more likely to go down to around 1.0720, and after that, it might have potentially to go up to around 1.0850.(Current Price: 1.0813)

26.6.09

EUR/USD
It is more likely to go up to around 1.4060 or higher, and after that, it might have potentially to go down to around 1.39.(Current Price: 1.3991)

GBP/USD
It is more likely to go up to around 1.6480, but becareful, because it might have potentially to go down too to around 1.6250. You can entry Buy when it reaches around 1.63 or 1.6250. We recommend to hold Buy is better.(Current Price: 1.6367)

AUD/USD
It is more likely to go up to around 0.8080 or even 0.81(Current Price: 0.8031)

USD/JPY
It is more likely to go down to around 95.50 or lower.(Current Price: 95.93)

USD/CHF
It is more likely to go down to around 1.0850(Current Price: 1.0936)

25.6.09

EUR/USDIt is more likely to go down to around 1.3820, and after that, it might have potentially to go up to around 1.4.(Current Price: 1.3934)

GBP/USDIt is more likely to go down to around 1.63, and after that, it might have potentially to go up to around 1.65.(Current Price: 1.6411)

AUD/USDIt is more likely to go down to around 0.79.(Current Price: 0.7964)

USD/JPYIt is more likely to go down to around 95, and after that, it might have potentially to go up to around 96.30.(Current Price: 95.68)

USD/CHFIt is more likely to go up to around 1.11. But it also have potentially to go down first to around 1.08.(Current Price: 1.0976)

EUR/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 1.4150, and after that, it might have potentially to go down to around 1.39, But if it still goes up and reaches 1.4290, then it will bullish. You can use a breakout strategy, Buy when it is at 1.4290, and Sell when it is at 1.3950.(Current Price: 1.4074)

GBP/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 1.6650, and after that, it might have potentially to go down to around 1.6250.(Current Price: 1.6436)

AUD/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 0.8050, and after that, it might have potentially to go down to around 0.78.(Current Price: 0.7938)

USD/JPYIt is more likely to go up to around 95.80, and after that, it might have potentially to go down to around 94.50.(Current Price: 95.25)

USD/CHFIt is more likely to go down to around 1.0560, and after that, it might have potentially to go up to around 1.08.(Current Price: 1.0670)

EUR/USDIt is more likely to go down to around 1.3750 or even 1.36, But if it is go up and break 1.3960 then it will bullish. We recommend to hold Sell, but beware from today news report.(Current Price: 1.3840)
GBP/USDIt is more likely to go down to around 1.62, and after that, it might have potentially to go up to around 1.6450.(Current Price: 1.6270)
AUD/USDIt is more likely to go down to around 0.7770, and after that, it might have potentially to go up to around 0.7960.(Current Price: 0.7820)
USD/JPYIt is more likely to go down to around 94.50 or lower.(Current Price: 95.20)
USD/CHFIt is more likely to go up to around 1.0950. But if it is go down and break below 1.08 then it will bearish.(Current Price: 1.0875)