29/7/09
EUR/USDIt is more likely to go down to around 1.41 or lower, and after that, it might have potentially to go up to around 1.4250.(Current Price: 1.4170)
GBP/USDIt is more likely to go down lower than 1.64 or even 1.6350, and after that, it might have potentially to go up to around 1.65.(Current Price: 1.6430)
AUD/USDIt is more likely to go down to around 0.82, before it goes up to around 0.8350.(Current Price: 0.8265)
USD/JPYIt is more likely to go up to around 95, before it goes down to around 94.(Current Price: 94.45)
USD/CHFIt is more likely to go up to around 1.08, before it goes down to around 1.07.(Current Price: 1.0752)
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
Thursday, July 23, 2009
EUR/USDIt is more likely to go down to around 1.4100, and after that, it will go up to around 1.42. We prefer to wait until it goes down for a little bit, and then entry Buy. Recommend to Hold Buy.(Current Price: 1.4162)
GBP/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 1.6550 or even 1.66, But please beware, because before it goes up, it might have potentially to go down for a little bit at around 1.6425. We Prefer to Hold Buy than Sell.(Current Price: 1.6486)
AUD/USDIt is more likely to go down to around 0.8050, and after that, it might have potentially to go up to around 0.8150.(Current Price: 0.8141)
USD/JPYNo Recommendation, because it seems that it would move zig zag today.
USD/CHFIt is more likely to go down to 1.07 or even 1.06, and after that it might have potentially to go up.(Current Price: 1.0741)
Please click herefor Ava Analysis as PDF
GBP/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 1.6550 or even 1.66, But please beware, because before it goes up, it might have potentially to go down for a little bit at around 1.6425. We Prefer to Hold Buy than Sell.(Current Price: 1.6486)
AUD/USDIt is more likely to go down to around 0.8050, and after that, it might have potentially to go up to around 0.8150.(Current Price: 0.8141)
USD/JPYNo Recommendation, because it seems that it would move zig zag today.
USD/CHFIt is more likely to go down to 1.07 or even 1.06, and after that it might have potentially to go up.(Current Price: 1.0741)
Please click herefor Ava Analysis as PDF
EUR/USDIt is more likely to go down to around 1.4150. But may be before it goes down, we see that it might have potentially to try to reach higher than 1.4250 or even 1.43. You can entry sell after it goes up.(Current Price: 1.4232)
GBP/USDIt is more likely to go down to below 1.64, but before it goes down, it might have potentially to go up first at around 1.66. We recommend to use a breakout strategy, Buy if reaches around 1.65, and Sell if reaches 1.64.(Current Price: 1.6481)
AUD/USDIt is complicated, and today better not to trade in this currency.
USD/JPYIt is also complicated, but we predict that it is more likely to go down to around 92.70, before it goes up again to around 94.(Current Price: 94.26)
USD/CHFIt is more likely to go down to around 1.06 or lower. But please beware, because it might have potentially to go up first at around 1.0680 or 1.07.(Current Price: 1.0655)
GBP/USDIt is more likely to go down to below 1.64, but before it goes down, it might have potentially to go up first at around 1.66. We recommend to use a breakout strategy, Buy if reaches around 1.65, and Sell if reaches 1.64.(Current Price: 1.6481)
AUD/USDIt is complicated, and today better not to trade in this currency.
USD/JPYIt is also complicated, but we predict that it is more likely to go down to around 92.70, before it goes up again to around 94.(Current Price: 94.26)
USD/CHFIt is more likely to go down to around 1.06 or lower. But please beware, because it might have potentially to go up first at around 1.0680 or 1.07.(Current Price: 1.0655)
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
EUR/USD intraday ** ì
Strategy Entry Stop 1st target 2nd target
LONG 1.4170 1.4160 1.4230 1.4275
Pivot: 1.4160.
Trend: ST Ltd Upside; MT Range
Key levels:
1.4315** Fib projection
1.4275** Fib projection
1.423** Intraday resistance
1.4202 Last
1.416*** Intraday pivot point
1.41* Intraday support
1.4075*** Intraday support
Our Preference: LONG positions @ 1.417 with 1.423 &
1.4275 in sight.
Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 1.416
will call for 1.41 & 1.4075.
Comment:
Comment: the RSI is above a strong support area. The
1.416 support area maintains a bullish bias.
Strategy Entry Stop 1st target 2nd target
LONG 1.4170 1.4160 1.4230 1.4275
Pivot: 1.4160.
Trend: ST Ltd Upside; MT Range
Key levels:
1.4315** Fib projection
1.4275** Fib projection
1.423** Intraday resistance
1.4202 Last
1.416*** Intraday pivot point
1.41* Intraday support
1.4075*** Intraday support
Our Preference: LONG positions @ 1.417 with 1.423 &
1.4275 in sight.
Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 1.416
will call for 1.41 & 1.4075.
Comment:
Comment: the RSI is above a strong support area. The
1.416 support area maintains a bullish bias.
EUR/USDIt is complicated. We predict that it is more likely to go up to around 1.4250 or even 1.43. But if it is still break under 1.4160 then it can become bearish. You can also use a breakout strategy.(Current Price: 1.4191)
GBP/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 1.65, but before it goes up, please beware, because it might potentially to re-test or go down once again to around 1.6350.(Current Price: 1.6406)
AUD/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 0.8250, and after that, it might have potentially to go down to around 0.8150.(Current Price: 0.8160)
USD/JPYIt is more likely to move zig-zag today, and probably it will go down first to around 93.20, and then will go up to around 94.30.(Current Price: 93.57)
USD/CHFIt is more likely to go up to around 1.07, after it goes down to around 1.0620.(Current Price: 1.0684)
GBP/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 1.65, but before it goes up, please beware, because it might potentially to re-test or go down once again to around 1.6350.(Current Price: 1.6406)
AUD/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 0.8250, and after that, it might have potentially to go down to around 0.8150.(Current Price: 0.8160)
USD/JPYIt is more likely to move zig-zag today, and probably it will go down first to around 93.20, and then will go up to around 94.30.(Current Price: 93.57)
USD/CHFIt is more likely to go up to around 1.07, after it goes down to around 1.0620.(Current Price: 1.0684)
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
EUR/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 1.4250 or even 1.43, and after that, it is potentially to go down to around 1.4150. You can also entry Sell after it goes up at around 1.43.(Current Price: 1.4210)
GBP/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 1.66 or higher. But before it goes up, We predict that it might have potentially to go down first at around 1.6450. You can wait to entry Buy. We prefer to Buy.(Current Price: 1.6510)
AUD/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 0.82, and after that, it is potentially to go down to around 0.81.(Current Price: 0.8117)
USD/JPYIt is more likely to go up to around 94.50, but before it goes up, this currency might have potentially to test first at around 93.(Current Price: 93.82)
USD/CHFIt is more likely to go down to around 1.0630, and after that, it is potentially to go up to around 1.0750.(Current Price: 1.0691)
GBP/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 1.66 or higher. But before it goes up, We predict that it might have potentially to go down first at around 1.6450. You can wait to entry Buy. We prefer to Buy.(Current Price: 1.6510)
AUD/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 0.82, and after that, it is potentially to go down to around 0.81.(Current Price: 0.8117)
USD/JPYIt is more likely to go up to around 94.50, but before it goes up, this currency might have potentially to test first at around 93.(Current Price: 93.82)
USD/CHFIt is more likely to go down to around 1.0630, and after that, it is potentially to go up to around 1.0750.(Current Price: 1.0691)
Friday, July 17, 2009
EUR/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 1.42, and after that, it might have potentially to go down to around 1.41 or even 1.4050. We can entry Sell after it goes up.(Current Price: 1.4141)
GBP/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 1.65, and after that, it might have potentially to go down to around 1.64 or even 1.63. We can entry Sell after it goes up.(Current Price: 1.6439)
AUD/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 0.81, and after that, it might have potentially to go down to around 0.80.(Current Price: 0.8050)
USD/JPYIt is more likely to go down to around 93.20, and after that, it might have potentially to go up to around 94.50.(Current Price: 93.79)
USD/CHFIt is more likely to go down to around 1.0670, and after that, it might have potentially to go up to around 1.0780.(Current Price: 1.0735)
GBP/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 1.65, and after that, it might have potentially to go down to around 1.64 or even 1.63. We can entry Sell after it goes up.(Current Price: 1.6439)
AUD/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 0.81, and after that, it might have potentially to go down to around 0.80.(Current Price: 0.8050)
USD/JPYIt is more likely to go down to around 93.20, and after that, it might have potentially to go up to around 94.50.(Current Price: 93.79)
USD/CHFIt is more likely to go down to around 1.0670, and after that, it might have potentially to go up to around 1.0780.(Current Price: 1.0735)
Thursday, July 16, 2009
EUR/USDIt is more likely to go down to around 1.4, but please beware, because we see that it also have potentially to go up to around 1.4170 or even 1.42. We prefer to hold entry Sell. May be waiting after it goes up for a while.(Current Price: 1.4075)
GBP/USDIt is more likely to go down to around 1.63 or lower, but please beware, because we see that it also have potentially to go up to around 1.64. We recommend to hold entry Sell. But if it still goes up and reaches 1.65, then it can continue to go up at around 1.6560.(Current Price: 1.6394)
AUD/USDIt is more likely to go down to around 0.79. We recommend to wait until it goes up for a while, and then entry Sell.(Current Price: 0.7999)
USD/JPYIt is more likely to go down to around 93.50, after it goes up at around 94.80. Better to hold Sell.(Current Price: 94.15)
USD/CHFIt is more likely to go up to around 1.08, after it goes down at around 1.07. Better to hold Buy.(Current Price: 1.0766)
GBP/USDIt is more likely to go down to around 1.63 or lower, but please beware, because we see that it also have potentially to go up to around 1.64. We recommend to hold entry Sell. But if it still goes up and reaches 1.65, then it can continue to go up at around 1.6560.(Current Price: 1.6394)
AUD/USDIt is more likely to go down to around 0.79. We recommend to wait until it goes up for a while, and then entry Sell.(Current Price: 0.7999)
USD/JPYIt is more likely to go down to around 93.50, after it goes up at around 94.80. Better to hold Sell.(Current Price: 94.15)
USD/CHFIt is more likely to go up to around 1.08, after it goes down at around 1.07. Better to hold Buy.(Current Price: 1.0766)
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
** REVISION / ADDITIONAL INFO ** (11:51am GMT+7)
EUR/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 1.4020, and after that, it might have potentially to go down to around 1.3940. (*You can also entry Sell, after it goes up. Because we predict that it might go up just for a while, and then going down)(Current Price: 1.3980)
GBP/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 1.6360 or 1.64, and after that, it might have potentially to go down to around 1.6250. (*You can also entry Sell, after it goes up. Because we predict that it might go up just for a while, and then going down)(Current Price: 1.6321)
AUD/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 0.7980, and after that, it might have potentially to go down to around 0.7850(Current Price: 0.7933)
USD/JPYIt is more likely to go up to around 94, and after that, it might have potentially to go down to around 93.(Current Price: 93.52)
USD/CHFIt is more likely to go down to around 1.0830, and after that, it might have potentially to go up to around 1.0930. (*You can also entry Buy, after it goes down)(Current Price: 1.0875)
EUR/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 1.4020, and after that, it might have potentially to go down to around 1.3940. (*You can also entry Sell, after it goes up. Because we predict that it might go up just for a while, and then going down)(Current Price: 1.3980)
GBP/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 1.6360 or 1.64, and after that, it might have potentially to go down to around 1.6250. (*You can also entry Sell, after it goes up. Because we predict that it might go up just for a while, and then going down)(Current Price: 1.6321)
AUD/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 0.7980, and after that, it might have potentially to go down to around 0.7850(Current Price: 0.7933)
USD/JPYIt is more likely to go up to around 94, and after that, it might have potentially to go down to around 93.(Current Price: 93.52)
USD/CHFIt is more likely to go down to around 1.0830, and after that, it might have potentially to go up to around 1.0930. (*You can also entry Buy, after it goes down)(Current Price: 1.0875)
Monday, July 13, 2009
14/7/09
EUR/USDIt is more likely to go down to around 1.3920, before it goes up to around 1.4050 or even 1.41. And if the price is still goes up and reaches 1.41, you can place a Sell Order in there. You can also entry Buy after it went down at around 1.3920, Or, Sell after it went up at around 1.41. There have some recommendations for you to choose.(Current Price: 1.3983)
GBP/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 1.63 or even 1.64, but before it goes up, it might have potentially to go down first to around 1.61 or lower. We recommend to wait until it goes down, and then entry Buy.(Current Price: 1.6235)
AUD/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 0.79, but before it goes up, it might have potentially to go down first to around 0.7750.(Current Price: 0.7832)
USD/JPYIt is more likely to still go up to around 93.80, but beware, because we see that it might have potentially to go down first to around 92. We suggest you to wait until it finished to go down, and then you can entry Buy.(Current Price: 92.98)
USD/CHFIt is more likely to go down to around 1.0750 or even 1.06. But before it goes down, it might have potentially to go up first to around 1.0870.(Current Price: 1.0824)
EUR/USDIt is more likely to go down to around 1.3920, before it goes up to around 1.4050 or even 1.41. And if the price is still goes up and reaches 1.41, you can place a Sell Order in there. You can also entry Buy after it went down at around 1.3920, Or, Sell after it went up at around 1.41. There have some recommendations for you to choose.(Current Price: 1.3983)
GBP/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 1.63 or even 1.64, but before it goes up, it might have potentially to go down first to around 1.61 or lower. We recommend to wait until it goes down, and then entry Buy.(Current Price: 1.6235)
AUD/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 0.79, but before it goes up, it might have potentially to go down first to around 0.7750.(Current Price: 0.7832)
USD/JPYIt is more likely to still go up to around 93.80, but beware, because we see that it might have potentially to go down first to around 92. We suggest you to wait until it finished to go down, and then you can entry Buy.(Current Price: 92.98)
USD/CHFIt is more likely to go down to around 1.0750 or even 1.06. But before it goes down, it might have potentially to go up first to around 1.0870.(Current Price: 1.0824)
Sunday, July 12, 2009
EUR/USDIt is not so clear. We predict that it is more likely to move flat or zig zag today (may be it will go down first, before it goes up). But if you still want to trade on it, We recommend to wait and see first. If it goes down to below 1.39 (may be at around 1.3840), then you can place a Buy Order. But if it directly goes up to around 1.4, then you can also place a Buy Order. If it is not reaches on that mentioned price, better you stay away from this currency and don’t trade.(Current Price: 1.3934)
GBP/USDIt is more likely to go down to around 1.6140, and then it might have potentially to go up to around 1.63. We recommend to wait to entry Buy at around 1.6140.(Current Price: 1.6209)
AUD/USDIt is not clear or complicated, and also it is potentially to move flat or zig zag today, We recommend you better don’t trade.(Current Price: 0.7786)
USD/JPYIt is more likely to still continue go down to around 91.50.(Current Price: 92.56)
USD/CHFIt is not so clear and a little bit complicated. But we predict that it is more likely to go up to around 1.0910, before it goes down to around 1.0750. If you still want to trade on this currency, we suggest you to wait until it goes up to around 1.09, and then entry Sell Order.(Current Price: 1.0865)
GBP/USDIt is more likely to go down to around 1.6140, and then it might have potentially to go up to around 1.63. We recommend to wait to entry Buy at around 1.6140.(Current Price: 1.6209)
AUD/USDIt is not clear or complicated, and also it is potentially to move flat or zig zag today, We recommend you better don’t trade.(Current Price: 0.7786)
USD/JPYIt is more likely to still continue go down to around 91.50.(Current Price: 92.56)
USD/CHFIt is not so clear and a little bit complicated. But we predict that it is more likely to go up to around 1.0910, before it goes down to around 1.0750. If you still want to trade on this currency, we suggest you to wait until it goes up to around 1.09, and then entry Sell Order.(Current Price: 1.0865)
Friday, July 10, 2009
Univ of Michigan came out worse than expected
July 10 2009 FXDD Forex Report
GBPUSD being pressured with support tested again
More on EURCHF chart analysis
Canada’s Harper on wires
US Trade Balance comes in at higher than expectations
SNB verbal intervention sends the Swiss Franc lower
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-July.10.2009
Italy’s PM Berlusconi on the newswires on G8 talks
GBPUSD find support against the 1.6187 level
EURGBP bounces to test 200 hour MA
Canada Unemployment comes in better than expected
Oil selloff helps the Usd
Eur/Gbp continues moving downward
UK PPI Input & Output
Univ of Michigan came out worse than expected
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 07:02 AM PDT
The Consumer Sentiment came in at 64.6 vs an estimate of 70 and lower than 70.8 last month. The Economic Condition index came in at 70.4 vs 73.2 last month and the Economic Outlook fell to 60.9 from 69.2 last month. Inflation expectations 1 year forward came in at 3.0% vs 3.1% last month.
Overall, the report is weak and suggest the consumer is starting to feel more pressure as employment continues to be an issue and balance sheet rebuilding will take longer than expectations.
The dollar has gotten stronger after the report on flight to quality flows. The USDJPY has declined as has the Yen crosses as short term traders exit the riskier trades. The CRB has moved lower and oil continues to move down.
July 10 2009 FXDD Forex Report
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 06:43 AM PDT
Click here to view the embedded video.
Lots of action and activity today in the Forex markets. News from Canada and the US seems to have shaped todays trends. Thank you for all of your comments on the commentary pages. Please keep them coming. If you have an idea or suggestion please email us today
GBPUSD being pressured with support tested again
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 06:04 AM PDT
The price has moved below the 1.6187 level and the 100 hour MA at the 1.6182 level. The low for the day is 1.6172. A move below all levels should give the bears the upper hand again. On alert.
More on EURCHF chart analysis
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 05:56 AM PDT
On the intraday 5 minute chart, the pair has moved between the 200 bar at 1.5134 and the 100 bar MA at the 1.5147 level. Since the break lower in NY these extremes have held the price action. A break above or below may give some short term clues to the intraday direction.
I still would be concerned about the threat to intervention however to support the currency pair.
Canada’s Harper on wires
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 05:47 AM PDT
Says that the “new” reserve currency is not a priority.
US Trade Balance comes in at higher than expectations
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 05:31 AM PDT
The expectation was for a -30B. The actual number came in at -26.0B. Lowest since 1999. Imports since July 2004.
Exports rose by 1.6% while imports fell by -0.6%.
The Real or inflation adjusted Trade Balance also improved to -36.182B from -40.063 B in April. The real Trade Balance is what is used to calculate GDP. A smaller deficit is a net gain for GDP.
Meanwhile Canada Trade Balance had a worse than expected Trade deficit of -1.4B. This is the largest deficit on record. Imports fell by 3.5%. Exports fell by -6.9%.
SNB verbal intervention sends the Swiss Franc lower
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 05:25 AM PDT
SNBs Roth was on the wires last night and reiterated the central banks policy of “sticking decidedly to its policy on the franc” and that he does not want “any further appreciation of the Swiss Franc”. The verbal intervention, led to a steady rise in the USDCHF and the EURCHF.
The comments led to a rise in the EURCHF off key technical support against the 1.1508 to 1.1515 level. These levels corresponds with the 100 and 200 day moving average along with the 38.2% retracement level of the move higher from the 1.4577 low to the 1.5447 high in March. The low for the day reached 1.5114.
NY has come in and moved the price lower. The current price has just tested the 61.8% retracement of the days range (1.5135 is the level). I would expect to find support at these levels as the threat of actual intervention becomes more and more likely. A stop below 1.5115 level would be the appropriate risk.
A move back above the 100 hour MA at the 1.5149 level would be needed to give the pair a more bullish bias.
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-July.10.2009
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 05:23 AM PDT
Good Morning:
The USD and JPY rose as speculation mounts that the global recovery is faltering.The JPY has been the main benefactor-as investors seek refuge from the weakened world economies.
World equity markets were lower, and US futures are also lower as speculation continues that the global recovery will be slower than originally predicted.
Oil:$59.58 Gold:$908.40
Today’s Data:Trade Balance: exp: -$30.0B prior: -$29.2BImport Prices: exp: 2.0% prior: -17.6%U Of Mich: exp: 70.0 prior: 70.8
HAVE A GREAT DAY-GREAT WEEKEND-GOOD LUCK
Italy’s PM Berlusconi on the newswires on G8 talks
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 05:16 AM PDT
Italy’s Berlusconi is on the wires saying the G8 discussed ways to thwart speculators in the oil market. The comment has led to a rise in the USDCAD as Canada is an exporter of oil and the potential for lower oil tends to hurt the CAD$. The price is back up testing the 1.1655 level and high for the day at 1.1662.
GBPUSD find support against the 1.6187 level
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 04:57 AM PDT
The GBPUSD has moved lower today and is has tested the 100 hour moving average (currently at the 1.6180 level) and the key 1.6187 level. The 1.6187 price corresponds to the low price over the period from June 10th to this week, when the market price finally dipped below this floor. Yesterday’s rally back higher took the price into the range that has dominated over the last month.
The level should find support/profit taking buyers on a short term intraday basis. A break, however, should lead to further downward pressure as the weekend approaches. The level is important.
EURGBP bounces to test 200 hour MA
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 04:39 AM PDT
The EURGBP found support before the 61.8% target (see prior post) and has moved up to test the 200 hour MA and the 38.2% retracement level at 0.8579 . This level was broken earlier today. A move back above this level will likely lead to further upside gains toward the 100 hour moving average at the 0.8613 level currently.
Canada Unemployment comes in better than expected
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 04:10 AM PDT
Unemployment came in at 8.6% vs 8.7%
Net Change in Employment -7.4K vs -41.8KFull time however, was down 47.5KPart time was up 40.1K
So the mix was not as great as gains were in the Part time sector which could suggest workers are being forced to take lower paying part time jobs.
Nevertheless, the market has sold off the USDCAD (CAD$ higher) off the number.
The price action in the USDCAD has been moving sideways of late as it respects the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement at the 1.1655 level (from the move down from the March high of 1.3062 to the low at 1.0785). The high price today occurred before the release at the 1.1662 level. The expectation for the day would be to find sellers against the level, with stops if the price moves back above this key level.
On the downside, the 100 and 200 hour moving averages need to be breached on the downside to confirm a bearish bias. The 100 hour MA comes in 1.1624. The 200 hour moving average comes in at 1.1597 currently.
Oil selloff helps the Usd
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 03:13 AM PDT
Oil is off in European trade, currently trading at 59.63. It appears weakness in oil prices has helped the Usd against its major currency pairs.
Eur/Usd trading at its low 1.3878, Gbp/Usd also its low 1.6217, Usd/Chf close to high at 1.0920.
Eur/Gbp continues moving downward
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 02:34 AM PDT
As noted earlier Eur/Gbp seems to have started a downward trend. It has now traded below Fibo 50% retracement of June 29 low (.8433). Next area of support is 61.8% retracement at .8523. A break of this level should find Eur/Gbp in a very bearish mode with not much support to stop downward trend.
UK PPI Input & Output
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 01:35 AM PDT
UK PPI Input m/m came in at 1.5%, better than the 0.8% expected and prior reading of 0.4%.
Y/Y came in at -11.0%, better than the -12.1% expected.
UK PPI Output m/m came in at -0.2%, worse than the 0.3% expected and the 0.4% prior reading.
Overall market sentiment seems mixed at moment with GBP/USD holding at 1.6280.
July 10 2009 FXDD Forex Report
GBPUSD being pressured with support tested again
More on EURCHF chart analysis
Canada’s Harper on wires
US Trade Balance comes in at higher than expectations
SNB verbal intervention sends the Swiss Franc lower
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-July.10.2009
Italy’s PM Berlusconi on the newswires on G8 talks
GBPUSD find support against the 1.6187 level
EURGBP bounces to test 200 hour MA
Canada Unemployment comes in better than expected
Oil selloff helps the Usd
Eur/Gbp continues moving downward
UK PPI Input & Output
Univ of Michigan came out worse than expected
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 07:02 AM PDT
The Consumer Sentiment came in at 64.6 vs an estimate of 70 and lower than 70.8 last month. The Economic Condition index came in at 70.4 vs 73.2 last month and the Economic Outlook fell to 60.9 from 69.2 last month. Inflation expectations 1 year forward came in at 3.0% vs 3.1% last month.
Overall, the report is weak and suggest the consumer is starting to feel more pressure as employment continues to be an issue and balance sheet rebuilding will take longer than expectations.
The dollar has gotten stronger after the report on flight to quality flows. The USDJPY has declined as has the Yen crosses as short term traders exit the riskier trades. The CRB has moved lower and oil continues to move down.
July 10 2009 FXDD Forex Report
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 06:43 AM PDT
Click here to view the embedded video.
Lots of action and activity today in the Forex markets. News from Canada and the US seems to have shaped todays trends. Thank you for all of your comments on the commentary pages. Please keep them coming. If you have an idea or suggestion please email us today
GBPUSD being pressured with support tested again
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 06:04 AM PDT
The price has moved below the 1.6187 level and the 100 hour MA at the 1.6182 level. The low for the day is 1.6172. A move below all levels should give the bears the upper hand again. On alert.
More on EURCHF chart analysis
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 05:56 AM PDT
On the intraday 5 minute chart, the pair has moved between the 200 bar at 1.5134 and the 100 bar MA at the 1.5147 level. Since the break lower in NY these extremes have held the price action. A break above or below may give some short term clues to the intraday direction.
I still would be concerned about the threat to intervention however to support the currency pair.
Canada’s Harper on wires
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 05:47 AM PDT
Says that the “new” reserve currency is not a priority.
US Trade Balance comes in at higher than expectations
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 05:31 AM PDT
The expectation was for a -30B. The actual number came in at -26.0B. Lowest since 1999. Imports since July 2004.
Exports rose by 1.6% while imports fell by -0.6%.
The Real or inflation adjusted Trade Balance also improved to -36.182B from -40.063 B in April. The real Trade Balance is what is used to calculate GDP. A smaller deficit is a net gain for GDP.
Meanwhile Canada Trade Balance had a worse than expected Trade deficit of -1.4B. This is the largest deficit on record. Imports fell by 3.5%. Exports fell by -6.9%.
SNB verbal intervention sends the Swiss Franc lower
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 05:25 AM PDT
SNBs Roth was on the wires last night and reiterated the central banks policy of “sticking decidedly to its policy on the franc” and that he does not want “any further appreciation of the Swiss Franc”. The verbal intervention, led to a steady rise in the USDCHF and the EURCHF.
The comments led to a rise in the EURCHF off key technical support against the 1.1508 to 1.1515 level. These levels corresponds with the 100 and 200 day moving average along with the 38.2% retracement level of the move higher from the 1.4577 low to the 1.5447 high in March. The low for the day reached 1.5114.
NY has come in and moved the price lower. The current price has just tested the 61.8% retracement of the days range (1.5135 is the level). I would expect to find support at these levels as the threat of actual intervention becomes more and more likely. A stop below 1.5115 level would be the appropriate risk.
A move back above the 100 hour MA at the 1.5149 level would be needed to give the pair a more bullish bias.
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-July.10.2009
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 05:23 AM PDT
Good Morning:
The USD and JPY rose as speculation mounts that the global recovery is faltering.The JPY has been the main benefactor-as investors seek refuge from the weakened world economies.
World equity markets were lower, and US futures are also lower as speculation continues that the global recovery will be slower than originally predicted.
Oil:$59.58 Gold:$908.40
Today’s Data:Trade Balance: exp: -$30.0B prior: -$29.2BImport Prices: exp: 2.0% prior: -17.6%U Of Mich: exp: 70.0 prior: 70.8
HAVE A GREAT DAY-GREAT WEEKEND-GOOD LUCK
Italy’s PM Berlusconi on the newswires on G8 talks
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 05:16 AM PDT
Italy’s Berlusconi is on the wires saying the G8 discussed ways to thwart speculators in the oil market. The comment has led to a rise in the USDCAD as Canada is an exporter of oil and the potential for lower oil tends to hurt the CAD$. The price is back up testing the 1.1655 level and high for the day at 1.1662.
GBPUSD find support against the 1.6187 level
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 04:57 AM PDT
The GBPUSD has moved lower today and is has tested the 100 hour moving average (currently at the 1.6180 level) and the key 1.6187 level. The 1.6187 price corresponds to the low price over the period from June 10th to this week, when the market price finally dipped below this floor. Yesterday’s rally back higher took the price into the range that has dominated over the last month.
The level should find support/profit taking buyers on a short term intraday basis. A break, however, should lead to further downward pressure as the weekend approaches. The level is important.
EURGBP bounces to test 200 hour MA
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 04:39 AM PDT
The EURGBP found support before the 61.8% target (see prior post) and has moved up to test the 200 hour MA and the 38.2% retracement level at 0.8579 . This level was broken earlier today. A move back above this level will likely lead to further upside gains toward the 100 hour moving average at the 0.8613 level currently.
Canada Unemployment comes in better than expected
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 04:10 AM PDT
Unemployment came in at 8.6% vs 8.7%
Net Change in Employment -7.4K vs -41.8KFull time however, was down 47.5KPart time was up 40.1K
So the mix was not as great as gains were in the Part time sector which could suggest workers are being forced to take lower paying part time jobs.
Nevertheless, the market has sold off the USDCAD (CAD$ higher) off the number.
The price action in the USDCAD has been moving sideways of late as it respects the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement at the 1.1655 level (from the move down from the March high of 1.3062 to the low at 1.0785). The high price today occurred before the release at the 1.1662 level. The expectation for the day would be to find sellers against the level, with stops if the price moves back above this key level.
On the downside, the 100 and 200 hour moving averages need to be breached on the downside to confirm a bearish bias. The 100 hour MA comes in 1.1624. The 200 hour moving average comes in at 1.1597 currently.
Oil selloff helps the Usd
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 03:13 AM PDT
Oil is off in European trade, currently trading at 59.63. It appears weakness in oil prices has helped the Usd against its major currency pairs.
Eur/Usd trading at its low 1.3878, Gbp/Usd also its low 1.6217, Usd/Chf close to high at 1.0920.
Eur/Gbp continues moving downward
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 02:34 AM PDT
As noted earlier Eur/Gbp seems to have started a downward trend. It has now traded below Fibo 50% retracement of June 29 low (.8433). Next area of support is 61.8% retracement at .8523. A break of this level should find Eur/Gbp in a very bearish mode with not much support to stop downward trend.
UK PPI Input & Output
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 01:35 AM PDT
UK PPI Input m/m came in at 1.5%, better than the 0.8% expected and prior reading of 0.4%.
Y/Y came in at -11.0%, better than the -12.1% expected.
UK PPI Output m/m came in at -0.2%, worse than the 0.3% expected and the 0.4% prior reading.
Overall market sentiment seems mixed at moment with GBP/USD holding at 1.6280.
EUR/USD intraday: the downside prevails. Pivot: 1.395 Our preference: Short positions below 1.395 with targets @ 1.3875 & 1.383 in extension. Alternative scenario: Above 1.395 look for further upside with 1.399 & 1.401 as targets. Comments: the pair is rebounding but should strike against its new resistance.
GBP/USD intraday: under pressure. Pivot: 1.63 Our preference: Short positions below 1.63 with targets @ 1.615 & 1.607 in extension. Alternative scenario: Above 1.63 look for further upside with 1.638 & 1.6425 as targets. Comment: the RSI is badly directed, the pair should face a further weakness.
USD/JPY intraday: under pressure. Pivot: 93.25 Our preference: Short positions below 93.25 with targets @ 91.8 & 91.1 in extension. Alternative scenario: Above 93.25 look for further upside with 93.6 & 94 as targets. Comment: the pair has broken below its triangle lower boundary, the RSI is bearish.
GBP/USD intraday: under pressure. Pivot: 1.63 Our preference: Short positions below 1.63 with targets @ 1.615 & 1.607 in extension. Alternative scenario: Above 1.63 look for further upside with 1.638 & 1.6425 as targets. Comment: the RSI is badly directed, the pair should face a further weakness.
USD/JPY intraday: under pressure. Pivot: 93.25 Our preference: Short positions below 93.25 with targets @ 91.8 & 91.1 in extension. Alternative scenario: Above 93.25 look for further upside with 93.6 & 94 as targets. Comment: the pair has broken below its triangle lower boundary, the RSI is bearish.
EUR/USDIt is more likely to go down to around 1.39. But if it goes up, it should not go higher than 1.4060. We prefer to hold Sell.(Current Price: 1.3971)
GBP/USDIt is more likely to go down to around 1.62. But if it goes up, it should not go higher than 1.6370. We prefer to hold Sell.(Current Price: 1.6282)
AUD/USDIt is more likely to go down to around 0.7750. We prefer to hold Sell(Current Price: 0.7811)
USD/JPYIt is more likely to go down to 92 or lower.(Current Price: 92.88)
USD/CHFIt is more likely to go up to around 1.09. But if it goes down, it should not go lower than 1.0760. We prefer to hold Buy.(Current Price: 1.0822)
GBP/USDIt is more likely to go down to around 1.62. But if it goes up, it should not go higher than 1.6370. We prefer to hold Sell.(Current Price: 1.6282)
AUD/USDIt is more likely to go down to around 0.7750. We prefer to hold Sell(Current Price: 0.7811)
USD/JPYIt is more likely to go down to 92 or lower.(Current Price: 92.88)
USD/CHFIt is more likely to go up to around 1.09. But if it goes down, it should not go lower than 1.0760. We prefer to hold Buy.(Current Price: 1.0822)
Thursday, July 9, 2009
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
9/7/09
EUR/USDIt is more likely to go down to around 1.3820 or may be lower, and after that, it might have potentially to go up to around 1.39. We prefer to hold buy after it went down to around 1.3820.(Current Price: 1.3880)
GBP/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 1.6150, and after that, it might have potentially to go down. But we suggest to wait and entry buy after it reached around 1.60.(Current Price: 1.6057)
AUD/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 0.79.(Current Price: 0.7791)
USD/JPYIt is more likely to go up to around 93.80, and then it might be goes down. But we suggest to entry buy after it reached 92.(Current Price: 92.77)
USD/CHFIt is more likely to go up to around 1.0940, and after that, it might have potentially to go down to around 1.0850.(Current Price: 1.0901)
EUR/USDIt is more likely to go down to around 1.3820 or may be lower, and after that, it might have potentially to go up to around 1.39. We prefer to hold buy after it went down to around 1.3820.(Current Price: 1.3880)
GBP/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 1.6150, and after that, it might have potentially to go down. But we suggest to wait and entry buy after it reached around 1.60.(Current Price: 1.6057)
AUD/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 0.79.(Current Price: 0.7791)
USD/JPYIt is more likely to go up to around 93.80, and then it might be goes down. But we suggest to entry buy after it reached 92.(Current Price: 92.77)
USD/CHFIt is more likely to go up to around 1.0940, and after that, it might have potentially to go down to around 1.0850.(Current Price: 1.0901)
EUR/USDIt is more likely to go down to around 1.3850 or lower, and then, it might have potentially to go up to around 1.3990. But we suggest you to use a breakout strategy: Sell if it reaches 1.38, and Buy if it reaches 1.4.(Current Price: 1.3905)
GBP/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 1.62, after it went down to around 1.6040. We suggest to entry Buy after it went down and reaches around 1.6040.(Current Price: 1.6085)
AUD/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 0.7970. But if it goes down, it should not lower than 0.7830. We suggest to wait until it goes down, and then entry Buy at around 0.7830.(Current Price: 0.7870)
USD/JPYIt is more likely to go up to around 95.50 or higher.(Current Price: 94.64)
USD/CHFIt is complicated, but we predict that it is more likely to go up to around 1.0950 or higher. We suggest to entry Buy after it went down to around 1.0830(Current Price: 1.09)
GBP/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 1.62, after it went down to around 1.6040. We suggest to entry Buy after it went down and reaches around 1.6040.(Current Price: 1.6085)
AUD/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 0.7970. But if it goes down, it should not lower than 0.7830. We suggest to wait until it goes down, and then entry Buy at around 0.7830.(Current Price: 0.7870)
USD/JPYIt is more likely to go up to around 95.50 or higher.(Current Price: 94.64)
USD/CHFIt is complicated, but we predict that it is more likely to go up to around 1.0950 or higher. We suggest to entry Buy after it went down to around 1.0830(Current Price: 1.09)
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
EUR/USDIt is looks a little bit complicated, but we predict that it might have potentially to go up to 1.4050, but if it goes down, it should not down more than 1.3860. We suggest to wait until it goes down at around 1.39 or may be at around 13:00 to 14:00 o’clock, and then entry Buy.(Current Price: 1.3962)
GBP/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 1.6350 or even 1.64, after it went down to around 1.6050. We suggest to hold buy after it went down.(Current Price: 1.6255)
AUD/USDIt is more likely to go down to around 0.79, and after that, it might have potentially to go up to around 1.8040. We suggest to hold Buy is better.(Current Price: 0.7955)
USD/JPYIt is complicated, but we predict that it is more likely to go down to around 95 or even 94, and after that, it might have potentially to go up to around 96. We suggest to use a breakout strategy, buy when it reaches 95.50, and Sell when it reaches 94.90.(Current Price: 95.34)
USD/CHFIt is complicated. But we predict that it is more likely to go down to around 1.08, after it went up to around 1.0930.(Current Price: 1.0858)
GBP/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 1.6350 or even 1.64, after it went down to around 1.6050. We suggest to hold buy after it went down.(Current Price: 1.6255)
AUD/USDIt is more likely to go down to around 0.79, and after that, it might have potentially to go up to around 1.8040. We suggest to hold Buy is better.(Current Price: 0.7955)
USD/JPYIt is complicated, but we predict that it is more likely to go down to around 95 or even 94, and after that, it might have potentially to go up to around 96. We suggest to use a breakout strategy, buy when it reaches 95.50, and Sell when it reaches 94.90.(Current Price: 95.34)
USD/CHFIt is complicated. But we predict that it is more likely to go down to around 1.08, after it went up to around 1.0930.(Current Price: 1.0858)
Monday, July 6, 2009
EUR/USDIt is more likely to go down to around 1.3900, and after that, it might have potentially to go up to around 1.4.(Current Price: 1.3980)
GBP/USDIt is more likely to go down to around 1.6230, and after that, it might have potentially to go up to around 1.6350.(Current Price: 1.6330)
AUD/USDIt is complicated, but we predict that it might have potentially to go up to around 0.8040, before it goes down to around 0.79 or lower.(Current Price: 0.7967)
USD/JPYIt is more likely to go up to around 96.50, and after that, it might have potentially to go down to around 95.(Current Price: 96.04)
USD/CHFIt is more likely to go up to around 1.09, and after that, it might have potentially to go down to around 1.08.(Current Price: 1.0863)
GBP/USDIt is more likely to go down to around 1.6230, and after that, it might have potentially to go up to around 1.6350.(Current Price: 1.6330)
AUD/USDIt is complicated, but we predict that it might have potentially to go up to around 0.8040, before it goes down to around 0.79 or lower.(Current Price: 0.7967)
USD/JPYIt is more likely to go up to around 96.50, and after that, it might have potentially to go down to around 95.(Current Price: 96.04)
USD/CHFIt is more likely to go up to around 1.09, and after that, it might have potentially to go down to around 1.08.(Current Price: 1.0863)
Friday, July 3, 2009
EUR/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 1.41.(Current Price: 1.3989)
GBP/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 1.65.(Current Price: 1.6381)
AUD/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 0.8050.(Current Price: 0.7963)
USD/JPYBetter to use a breakout strategy. Buy when it reaches 96.50, and Sell when it reaches 95.30.(Current Price: 95.98)
USD/CHFIt is more likely to go down to around 1.0750.(Current Price: 1.0857)
GBP/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 1.65.(Current Price: 1.6381)
AUD/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 0.8050.(Current Price: 0.7963)
USD/JPYBetter to use a breakout strategy. Buy when it reaches 96.50, and Sell when it reaches 95.30.(Current Price: 95.98)
USD/CHFIt is more likely to go down to around 1.0750.(Current Price: 1.0857)
Thursday, July 2, 2009
EUR/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 1.4220 or higher, and after that, it might have potentially to go down to around 1.41.(Current Price: 1.4125)
GBP/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 1.6560 or higher, and after that, it might have potentially to go down to around 1.64.(Current Price: 1.6483)
AUD/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 0.8130 or higher, and after that, it might have potentially to go down to around 0.8020.(Current Price: 0.8070)
USD/JPYIt is complicated. We recommend to use a breakout strategy. Buy when it reaches 97, and Sell when it reaches 96.(Current Price: 96.60)
USD/CHFIt is more likely to go down to around 1.07 or lower, and after that, it might have potentially to go up to around 1.0850.(Current Price: 1.0761)
Today, we have a very important news at 19:30 GMT+7. Non Farm Payroll News (NFP). Beware with this news report. Because it is very high impact !
Beware from today news: (time is using GMT+7 / Indonesia – Jakarta Time)(see your time conversion at www.timeanddate.com)
13:30 CHF15:30 GBP16:00 EUR18:45 EUR (ECB – Interest Rate Report. Beware !)19:30 USD, EUR (Non Farm Payroll News, Beware !)21:00 USD
GBP/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 1.6560 or higher, and after that, it might have potentially to go down to around 1.64.(Current Price: 1.6483)
AUD/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 0.8130 or higher, and after that, it might have potentially to go down to around 0.8020.(Current Price: 0.8070)
USD/JPYIt is complicated. We recommend to use a breakout strategy. Buy when it reaches 97, and Sell when it reaches 96.(Current Price: 96.60)
USD/CHFIt is more likely to go down to around 1.07 or lower, and after that, it might have potentially to go up to around 1.0850.(Current Price: 1.0761)
Today, we have a very important news at 19:30 GMT+7. Non Farm Payroll News (NFP). Beware with this news report. Because it is very high impact !
Beware from today news: (time is using GMT+7 / Indonesia – Jakarta Time)(see your time conversion at www.timeanddate.com)
13:30 CHF15:30 GBP16:00 EUR18:45 EUR (ECB – Interest Rate Report. Beware !)19:30 USD, EUR (Non Farm Payroll News, Beware !)21:00 USD
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
GET READY FOR NON-FARM PAYROLLS THIS THURSDAY
This Thursday promises to be a huge day for the USD. Nonfarm Payrolls are being released on July 2nd at 12:30 (GMT).
Nonfarms have always caused currencies to jump. If we look at last month’s Nonfarms, we can see that the event's forecast was -520 and the actual result was -345, causing the USD to rise by almost 250 pips.
Look at some past charts to learn how price reacts to Nonfarm Payrolls. It’s going to be a big day! If you already have an account, you may want to stock some cash in it. If you don't have an account yet, this could be a great time to get one.
This Thursday promises to be a huge day for the USD. Nonfarm Payrolls are being released on July 2nd at 12:30 (GMT).
Nonfarms have always caused currencies to jump. If we look at last month’s Nonfarms, we can see that the event's forecast was -520 and the actual result was -345, causing the USD to rise by almost 250 pips.
Look at some past charts to learn how price reacts to Nonfarm Payrolls. It’s going to be a big day! If you already have an account, you may want to stock some cash in it. If you don't have an account yet, this could be a great time to get one.
1/7/09
EUR/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 1.4120, and after that, it might have potentially to go down to around 1.3950.(Current Price: 1.4022)
GBP/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 1.6650, and after that, it might have potentially to go down to around 1.64.(Current Price: 1.6428)
AUD/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 0.8150, and after that, it might have potentially to go down.(Current Price: 0.8050)
USD/JPYIt is more likely to go down to around 96.(Current Price: 96.77)
USD/CHFWe predict that it is more likely to go down to around 1.0750, But if it is still goes up to 1.0950 then it will be bullish.(Current Price: 1.0871)
EUR/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 1.4120, and after that, it might have potentially to go down to around 1.3950.(Current Price: 1.4022)
GBP/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 1.6650, and after that, it might have potentially to go down to around 1.64.(Current Price: 1.6428)
AUD/USDIt is more likely to go up to around 0.8150, and after that, it might have potentially to go down.(Current Price: 0.8050)
USD/JPYIt is more likely to go down to around 96.(Current Price: 96.77)
USD/CHFWe predict that it is more likely to go down to around 1.0750, But if it is still goes up to 1.0950 then it will be bullish.(Current Price: 1.0871)
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