Univ of Michigan came out worse than expected
July 10 2009 FXDD Forex Report
GBPUSD being pressured with support tested again
More on EURCHF chart analysis
Canada’s Harper on wires
US Trade Balance comes in at higher than expectations
SNB verbal intervention sends the Swiss Franc lower
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-July.10.2009
Italy’s PM Berlusconi on the newswires on G8 talks
GBPUSD find support against the 1.6187 level
EURGBP bounces to test 200 hour MA
Canada Unemployment comes in better than expected
Oil selloff helps the Usd
Eur/Gbp continues moving downward
UK PPI Input & Output
Univ of Michigan came out worse than expected
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 07:02 AM PDT
The Consumer Sentiment came in at 64.6 vs an estimate of 70 and lower than 70.8 last month. The Economic Condition index came in at 70.4 vs 73.2 last month and the Economic Outlook fell to 60.9 from 69.2 last month. Inflation expectations 1 year forward came in at 3.0% vs 3.1% last month.
Overall, the report is weak and suggest the consumer is starting to feel more pressure as employment continues to be an issue and balance sheet rebuilding will take longer than expectations.
The dollar has gotten stronger after the report on flight to quality flows. The USDJPY has declined as has the Yen crosses as short term traders exit the riskier trades. The CRB has moved lower and oil continues to move down.
July 10 2009 FXDD Forex Report
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 06:43 AM PDT
Click here to view the embedded video.
Lots of action and activity today in the Forex markets. News from Canada and the US seems to have shaped todays trends. Thank you for all of your comments on the commentary pages. Please keep them coming. If you have an idea or suggestion please email us today
GBPUSD being pressured with support tested again
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 06:04 AM PDT
The price has moved below the 1.6187 level and the 100 hour MA at the 1.6182 level. The low for the day is 1.6172. A move below all levels should give the bears the upper hand again. On alert.
More on EURCHF chart analysis
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 05:56 AM PDT
On the intraday 5 minute chart, the pair has moved between the 200 bar at 1.5134 and the 100 bar MA at the 1.5147 level. Since the break lower in NY these extremes have held the price action. A break above or below may give some short term clues to the intraday direction.
I still would be concerned about the threat to intervention however to support the currency pair.
Canada’s Harper on wires
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 05:47 AM PDT
Says that the “new” reserve currency is not a priority.
US Trade Balance comes in at higher than expectations
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 05:31 AM PDT
The expectation was for a -30B. The actual number came in at -26.0B. Lowest since 1999. Imports since July 2004.
Exports rose by 1.6% while imports fell by -0.6%.
The Real or inflation adjusted Trade Balance also improved to -36.182B from -40.063 B in April. The real Trade Balance is what is used to calculate GDP. A smaller deficit is a net gain for GDP.
Meanwhile Canada Trade Balance had a worse than expected Trade deficit of -1.4B. This is the largest deficit on record. Imports fell by 3.5%. Exports fell by -6.9%.
SNB verbal intervention sends the Swiss Franc lower
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 05:25 AM PDT
SNBs Roth was on the wires last night and reiterated the central banks policy of “sticking decidedly to its policy on the franc” and that he does not want “any further appreciation of the Swiss Franc”. The verbal intervention, led to a steady rise in the USDCHF and the EURCHF.
The comments led to a rise in the EURCHF off key technical support against the 1.1508 to 1.1515 level. These levels corresponds with the 100 and 200 day moving average along with the 38.2% retracement level of the move higher from the 1.4577 low to the 1.5447 high in March. The low for the day reached 1.5114.
NY has come in and moved the price lower. The current price has just tested the 61.8% retracement of the days range (1.5135 is the level). I would expect to find support at these levels as the threat of actual intervention becomes more and more likely. A stop below 1.5115 level would be the appropriate risk.
A move back above the 100 hour MA at the 1.5149 level would be needed to give the pair a more bullish bias.
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-July.10.2009
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 05:23 AM PDT
Good Morning:
The USD and JPY rose as speculation mounts that the global recovery is faltering.The JPY has been the main benefactor-as investors seek refuge from the weakened world economies.
World equity markets were lower, and US futures are also lower as speculation continues that the global recovery will be slower than originally predicted.
Oil:$59.58 Gold:$908.40
Today’s Data:Trade Balance: exp: -$30.0B prior: -$29.2BImport Prices: exp: 2.0% prior: -17.6%U Of Mich: exp: 70.0 prior: 70.8
HAVE A GREAT DAY-GREAT WEEKEND-GOOD LUCK
Italy’s PM Berlusconi on the newswires on G8 talks
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 05:16 AM PDT
Italy’s Berlusconi is on the wires saying the G8 discussed ways to thwart speculators in the oil market. The comment has led to a rise in the USDCAD as Canada is an exporter of oil and the potential for lower oil tends to hurt the CAD$. The price is back up testing the 1.1655 level and high for the day at 1.1662.
GBPUSD find support against the 1.6187 level
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 04:57 AM PDT
The GBPUSD has moved lower today and is has tested the 100 hour moving average (currently at the 1.6180 level) and the key 1.6187 level. The 1.6187 price corresponds to the low price over the period from June 10th to this week, when the market price finally dipped below this floor. Yesterday’s rally back higher took the price into the range that has dominated over the last month.
The level should find support/profit taking buyers on a short term intraday basis. A break, however, should lead to further downward pressure as the weekend approaches. The level is important.
EURGBP bounces to test 200 hour MA
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 04:39 AM PDT
The EURGBP found support before the 61.8% target (see prior post) and has moved up to test the 200 hour MA and the 38.2% retracement level at 0.8579 . This level was broken earlier today. A move back above this level will likely lead to further upside gains toward the 100 hour moving average at the 0.8613 level currently.
Canada Unemployment comes in better than expected
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 04:10 AM PDT
Unemployment came in at 8.6% vs 8.7%
Net Change in Employment -7.4K vs -41.8KFull time however, was down 47.5KPart time was up 40.1K
So the mix was not as great as gains were in the Part time sector which could suggest workers are being forced to take lower paying part time jobs.
Nevertheless, the market has sold off the USDCAD (CAD$ higher) off the number.
The price action in the USDCAD has been moving sideways of late as it respects the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement at the 1.1655 level (from the move down from the March high of 1.3062 to the low at 1.0785). The high price today occurred before the release at the 1.1662 level. The expectation for the day would be to find sellers against the level, with stops if the price moves back above this key level.
On the downside, the 100 and 200 hour moving averages need to be breached on the downside to confirm a bearish bias. The 100 hour MA comes in 1.1624. The 200 hour moving average comes in at 1.1597 currently.
Oil selloff helps the Usd
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 03:13 AM PDT
Oil is off in European trade, currently trading at 59.63. It appears weakness in oil prices has helped the Usd against its major currency pairs.
Eur/Usd trading at its low 1.3878, Gbp/Usd also its low 1.6217, Usd/Chf close to high at 1.0920.
Eur/Gbp continues moving downward
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 02:34 AM PDT
As noted earlier Eur/Gbp seems to have started a downward trend. It has now traded below Fibo 50% retracement of June 29 low (.8433). Next area of support is 61.8% retracement at .8523. A break of this level should find Eur/Gbp in a very bearish mode with not much support to stop downward trend.
UK PPI Input & Output
Posted: 10 Jul 2009 01:35 AM PDT
UK PPI Input m/m came in at 1.5%, better than the 0.8% expected and prior reading of 0.4%.
Y/Y came in at -11.0%, better than the -12.1% expected.
UK PPI Output m/m came in at -0.2%, worse than the 0.3% expected and the 0.4% prior reading.
Overall market sentiment seems mixed at moment with GBP/USD holding at 1.6280.